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Where do we stand with Germany’s CO₂ Budget? An Update
The German CO₂ budget for a global warming limit of 1.5 °C has already been used up. Depending on the probability of remaining below the 1.5 °C limit, the EU still has a budget of 4.9 (67%) or 8.7 Gt CO₂ (50%). If emissions had to be reduced linearly to zero from the beginning of 2024, the EU would have to be CO₂ neutral by 2027 or 2030 at the latest. [HJ1] For the 1.75 °C target and a probability of 67%, the calculation results in a budget of 3.8 Gt CO₂ for Germany and of 28.7 Gt CO₂ for the EU. With a linear reduction in emissions, Germany would have to be CO₂ neutral in 2036 and the EU in 2046. In the view of the SRU, German and international climate policy should continue to adhere to the compliance of the limit of 1.5 °C, even if the remaining CO₂ budget for this is now very small, also at a global level.
The new calculations are based on current emissions data and improved scientific analyses of the remaining global CO₂ budget that have been published since the last publications of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Otherwise, they use the same methodology as the previous publications of the SRU on the CO₂ budget (SRU 2020 and 2022).
As supplement to the paper, the SRU also offers a new Excel tool called “CO₂ Budget Calculator” for download. With this tool, the calculation and the sources can be tracked transparently, and parameters that influence the size of the budget can be changed.